Predictive software shows health risks to patients

A GP has developed a predictive software tool which shows patients the benefits for their future health if they change particular lifestyle habits.

Dr Chris Martin, developed the Laindon Survival Model, in an effort to enable patients to make a more informed choice about their healthcare, as part of his MSc Health Informatics course at the University College London.

He said: “I wanted to help doctors demonstrate the different levels of health risk associated with certain lifestyle choices and health events to patients in an easily understandable format.”

Dr Martin, a GP at the Laindon Health Centre, Essex, first piloted the software in his practice. Its benefits have been noticed by Health Enterprise East (HEE), the NHS Innovation Hub for Healthcare in the East of England, which are now promoting it nationally.

Stuart Thompson, project manager at HEE, told EHI Primary Care: “This mortality assessment technology translates the percentage risk of cardiovascular disease from the varying presentations of particular patients, and uniquely, allows patients to visually see the impact of their lifestyle habits and also the benefits of available interventions.”

The Excel-based system uses existing Framingham risk equations (equation used to derive cardiovascular disease risk-prediction charts) along with risks of death and disease taken from UK mortality and health statistics to provide accurate identification of risk factors.

Thompson added: “This clever tool can look at a number of assessable risk factors, including smoking habits, blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol and age – it will take these and produce a detailed graph based on statistics showing the probabilities of what could happen if a person carried on with bad habits, as well as what the benefits would be if they changed, so the patient sees it right in front of their eyes.”

The tool will be of particular help to sufferers of cardiovascular disease, which is the main cause of death in the UK.

Thompson says: “GPs can use this tool to ensure that every patient has their own view of acceptable and unacceptable risk, and they can decide what interventions they should take to prevent any risk of cardiac problems, or related issues. It should help increase prevention and reduce the need for treatment.”

The tool has been piloted in six Essex surgeries and HEE are now looking to extend availability nationwide.

The cost of the software is £35 per individual licence with discounts available if multiple licences are purchased.

Thompson said: “Patients have really responded to the opportunity to have their risk explained in a visual way, rather than just listening to their GP in the manner they did before. This software is an excellent tool to help implement a patient-led NHS and give patients a more informed choice.”

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